2019 MAPA DE LOS CARTELES EN MEXICO

LOS CARTELES MEXICANOS TAMBIEN YA LE ENTRARON DE LLENO A LA PRODUCCION DE DROGAS SINTETICAS COMO LAS METANFETAMINAS Y EL FENTANILO  QUE SON MUCHO MAS RENTABLES QUE LAS CLASICAS AL PODER SER REPRODUCIDAS EN LABORATORIOS CLANDESTINOS -POR CIERTO LAS DROGAS SINTETICAS SON MAS PODEROSAS Y ADICTIVAS QUE LAS NATURALES  -POR CIERTO EL FENTANILO Es 50 veces más poderoso que la heroína y hasta 100 más que la morfina. El FENTANILO ES USADO COMO ANALGESICO Y ANESTESIA EN LOS SOLDADOS CUANDO SON HERIDOS EN BATALLA ..SE LES QUITA EL DOLOR DE INMEDIATO  Y HASTA PUEDEN SEGUIR EN BATALLA

ES IMPORTANTE REMARCAR QUE EL CARTEL JALISCO NUEVA GENERACION  HA AVANZADO A LA ZONA DE TAMAULIPAS, NUEVOLEON  COAHUILA Y TABASCO  PERO TODAVIA NO ESTÀ MARCADO SU AVANCE EN EL MAPA

-EL CARTEL DEL NORESTE TAMBIEN HA AVANZADO HACIA LA REGION CENTRO DE MEXICO A ESTADOS COMO QUERETARO, GUANAJUATO Y ZACATECAS

-SABIA CALLE INFORMA que ISIDRO MEZA FLORES alias  "EL CHAPO ISIDRO" de los REMANENTES DEL CARTEL DE LOS "BELTRAN LEYVA" es UNO de los CAPOS MÀS FUERTES ahorita y ni ruido hace este individuo se ha ALIADO con el CARTEL DEL NORESTE  "CDN" Y ENTRE LOS 2  SIGUEN CRECIENDO 

P.D. HASTA ABAJO PUSE EL ARTICULO ORIGINAL EN INGLES DE STRATFORT

 

 

Surprisingly little has changed over the past year in terms of cartel dynamics. Various leaders and lieutenants have been arrested or killed, and additional splintering has continued for some already fractured groups, but by and large, 2018 was characterized by a stasis in the conflict zones of the assorted factions. In the past, periods of stasis often entailed that cartel groups were staying within their areas of control and that violence would be lower. However, in the current period, large and bloody struggles are continuing unresolved, and cartel groups remain locked in nasty turf wars. This environment means that most of these clashes will rage on well into 2019.

This violence has been reflected in the murder statistics, as the homicide figure for 2018 hit 33,341 — far surpassing the 2017 tally of 29,168. While Mexico's homicide rate of about 27 per 100,000 people is higher than that of the United States (which is expected to come in at about 5 per 100,000 people for 2018), it is still considerably lower than the rates for other countries in the region, including El Salvador (about 82 per 100,000), Honduras (about 56 per 100,000) and Jamaica (about 47 per 100,000).

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As for drug smuggling, synthetics such as methamphetamine and fentanyl continued to impact cartel dynamics heavily in 2018. The huge profits that can be reaped from manufacturing synthetic drugs dwarf those of traditional drugs. Trafficking cocaine has long been a lucrative criminal enterprise for Mexican criminals, but they must purchase the drug from Andean producers. By making methamphetamine themselves, however, they can reap the lion's share of the profits.

Opium poppies are another profitable criminal enterprise in Mexico, whose heroin now accounts for more than 90 percent of the U.S. market for the drug. However, raising poppies and processing opium gum into heroin costs more and takes longer than producing fentanyl. The synthetic opioid is more profitable than heroin, which explains why criminals have been passing fentanyl off as heroin. Record levels of poppy planting and the low cost of fentanyl have led to a collapse in the price of opium gum. With Colombian coca production also running at historically high levels, Mexican cartels are likely to continue to traffic a wide variety of drugs to meet U.S. and domestic demand.

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But drug trafficking is not the only criminal activity that Mexico's organized crime cartels engage in. The fracturing of the formerly powerful cartels has led not only to a record number of murders but also to heavily armed cartel gunmen becoming involved in a host of other criminal enterprises, from kidnapping and extortion to the theft of cargo and fuel. It is no coincidence that the pilfering of cargo and fuel have reached historically high levels as balkanization blossomed over the past half-decade.

Tierra Caliente-Based Organized Crime

Last year's forecast highlighted the powerful Valencia smuggling family as the driving force behind the Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion (CJNG). This fact has not been lost on the Mexican and U.S. governments or their allies, who have continued to target the family. Despite efforts to cripple the group by going after its finance and logistics apparatus (the Valencia family), the CJNG has shown no signs of running short on cash or suffering any disruption in its operations due to the arrests of high-ranking members. Indeed, it remains the most aggressive cartel in Mexico, and its efforts to expand its area of control are largely responsible for the persistent wave of violence racking Tijuana, Juarez, Guanajuato and Mexico City.

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But the past year also revealed some emerging problems in the CJNG camp. Nueva Plaza, a splinter group of former members led by Carlos "El Cholo" Enrique Sanchez, has begun to contest the CJNG for control of Guadalajara. The violence has resulted in significant bloodshed, including the high-profile murders of three art students who were mistaken for cartel members.

Due to their aggressive nature, the CJNG and its leader, Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes (aka El Mencho), remain at the top of the priority target list for U.S. and Mexican authorities. However, the Mexican government will have to be careful what it wishes for. Past operations to decapitate cartels such as the Guadalajara cartel, the Gulf cartel, Los Zetas and La Familia Michoacana have led to fracturing and greater violence.

Sinaloa-Based Organized Crime

The Sinaloa cartel weathered 2018 in pretty good shape — especially considering that one of its senior leaders, Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman Loera, has been on trial in a Manhattan court for more than two months. Guzman Loera did not plead guilty and cooperate with the U.S. government, meaning that he is likely to spend the rest of his life in an American prison with no hope of escape. The witnesses called to testify against him have shed a great deal of light upon the logistics of the cartel's drug trafficking.

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While the trial continues in New York, the work of operating a multinational logistics and manufacturing business continues in Sinaloa. Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada and Guzman's sons, Ivan Archivaldo and Jesus Alfredo Guzman Salazar, who are often referred to as Los Chapitos, have fended off several internal challenges to assume control of the lucrative illegal corporation that is the Sinaloa cartel. They have also been able to hold their own against the incursions of the CJNG in places such as Tijuana and Juarez, and their successful resistance is in fact a big reason for the current stasis in the battle lines.

Both organizations have the resources to continue fighting for those cities through their local proxies for the foreseeable future. A significant crisis could weaken either and lead to victory for the other side. But until that happens, Tijuana and Juarez are likely to remain bloody.

Tamaulipas-Based Organized Crime

An array of Gulf cartel fragments is continuing to battle for primacy in Tamaulipas. Jose Alfredo Cardenas, aka The Accountant, has been able to consolidate control over the drug-smuggling corridor, known as a plaza, in Matamoros. He has also sent some of his forces to help his local ally in Reynosa, but they have been unable to take total control there. Despite heavy losses, including several leaders, the faction of Los Metros continues to oppose Cardenas. Some rumors hint that it is being kept alive through CJNG support, which would signal that group's entry into yet another struggle for control of a border plaza.

At Nuevo Laredo, the Cartel del Noreste (CDN) is the remnant of the Los Zetas cartel that controls that important crossing — the busiest point of entry along the border and the one that leads directly up the Interstate Highway 35 corridor. The CDN is led by Juan Gerardo Trevino Chavez, also known as El Huevo; he is a member of the old-school Trevino smuggling clan, which has a long history in Nuevo Laredo — and in the Los Zetas cartel. The CDN is locked in a vicious fight against another Los Zetas remnant, the Zetas Vieja Escuela (ZVE) — the Old School Zetas — that is playing out across the state, but particularly in Ciudad Victoria.

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